The Bitcoin Network hash rate has already completely recovered from the mining ban in China in the summer of 2021. And the growth doesn’t stop there. Blockware solutions tweeted a table with upcoming publicly announced ASIC orders for 2022 by the large players like Riot, Marathon, Hut8 and Bitfarms. And the orders are massive.
$RIOT, $MARA, $HUT, $BITF, and other large miners are bringing on significant hash power in 2022.
— Blockware Solutions (@BlockwareTeam) December 13, 2021
Compiling their public ASIC orders, they plan to bring on 56.5 EH/s by the end of 2022. pic.twitter.com/wGG71rBOha
Based on this data, these players will add 56.5 EH/s in 2022.
Let’s have a look at he Hash Rate growth in the last few years to see what that really means:
- 2019 – from 40 EH/s to 100 EH.s – increase of 60 EH/s
- 2020 – from 100 EH/s to 140 EH/s – increase of 40 EH/s
- 2021 – from 140 EH/s to current 180 EH/s – increase of 40 EH/s
We must keep in mind the China ban, which caused decline from 180 EH/s to 85 EH/s in just 1 month. So decline of 95 EH/s. This power however since recovered in different parts of the world, mainly USA, Canada & Russia. We will never know what would be the current Bitcoin Hash rate if the ban didn’t happen. But I am going to assume we will end 2021 around 190 EH/s, so increase of 50 EH/s for 2021
Big players alone will add 56.5 EH/s to Bitcoin Hash rate in 2022
So just the large players are going to add over 50 EH/s next year. That is more than the whole year increase for full 2020 or 2021. And that is only what has been publicly announced.
Many miners estimate the difficulty to increase about 4% each month. If we start January 2022 with 190 EH/s, and increase it by 4% each month, we end up with around 290 EH/s by the end of 2022. So around 100 EH/s increase.
With 56.5 EH/s being taken by the large miners, that leaves us with about 43.5 EH/s to be added by smaller players. And that actually sounds pretty reasonable. 43.5 EH/s is still more than the whole network increase for 2020 or for 2021.
Miners deployments by big players don’t mean faster than 4% MoM increase in Bitcoin Hash rate in 2022
Since the total Bitcoin Hash rate at the end of 2021 will be the highest it ever was, 4% month over month increments add up to a fairly large number. 4% increase is what many experts see as reasonable number, and this number would mean 100 EH/s increase in Bitcoin Hash Rate in 2022.
Big players deployments of over 50 EH/s actually make sense, especially with BTC price over $40,000. It is just s simple market economy happening right in front of our eyes – if something is profitable, large capital will be deployed to capture as much of the profits as possible.
If these companies would not come with plans like this, Bitcoin mining would become too profitable and someone else would notice sooner or later. I believe that even with these deployments, we can average 4% month over month average increase in difficulty in 2022.